Strategi Pertahanan Laut dan Integrated Deterrence di Indo-Pasifik: Kerangka Strategis Indonesia Menuju 2045
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Penelitian ini merumuskan strategi pertahanan laut Indonesia yang terintegrasi menuju 2045 di tengah kompetisi kekuatan besar, ancaman zona abu-abu, kerentanan infrastruktur laut kritis, dan perkembangan teknologi multidomain di Indo-Pasifik. Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) ditempatkan sebagai sistem pendukung, sedangkan integrated deterrence digunakan sebagai logika strategis untuk mengubah keunggulan informasi menjadi kemampuan pencegahan dan respons yang kredibel. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif, analisis isi dokumen Indonesia, ASEAN, Amerika Serikat, Australia, Jepang, Perserikatan Bangsa-Bangsa, dan International Maritime Organization, serta strategic foresight berbasis dua ketidakpastian: intensitas rivalitas kekuatan besar dan efektivitas institusi regional. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa keunggulan informasi tidak otomatis menghasilkan daya tangkal. Efek deterrence terbentuk ketika data multisumber diubah menjadi atribusi yang dapat dipertanggungjawabkan, keputusan cepat, respons terkalibrasi, dan komunikasi strategis yang kredibel. Empat skenario 2045 yang dihasilkan adalah cooperative maritime commons, managed strategic competition, fragmented regionalism, dan maritime confrontation. Strategi pertahanan laut yang paling tangguh pada seluruh skenario meliputi MDA berdaulat dan terfederasi, sea denial berlapis, perlindungan pelabuhan, kabel bawah laut, energi lepas pantai dan sistem navigasi, interoperabilitas selektif dengan ASEAN dan mitra, serta kemandirian industri dan logistik pertahanan. Kontribusi penelitian adalah kerangka MADI-2045 yang menghubungkan sensing, fusion, attribution, decision, response, dan strategic communication sebagai satu rantai deterrence pertahanan laut.
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